Hurricane Season--Author's Forecast for Now-November 20, 2024

 By Cal Orey

Weathering the Storm --

Hurricane Season

In October 2018, Hurricane Michael, Category 5, made landfall in the Florida Panhandle but its effects were felt across Georgia, too. The Carter family, living in a small town near the Georgia-Florida border, had prepared for the storm by stocking up on supplies and securing their home. As the winds howled and rain lashed against their windows, they huddled together in their bathroom, sharing family camping stories to distract themselves from the chaos outdoors. When the power went out, they lit candles and continued their tales of the past from past storms that reinforced their courage and resilience. In the dawn, they viewed a changed landscape; fallen trees on their yard and debris on the streets, but they were grateful for each other’s safety and ready to help their neighbors recover.

 Keep reading to discover what happened in the summer of 2024 and what comes next.

Past Predictions Hit!

Gulf States & East Coast Chilling Challenges

Fast forward to hurricane season. When The Blackout Effect (a short novel based on an imminent hurricane) was at press a real life hurricane ignited and headed towards Texas; nearly 3 million people were left in the dark, and a heatwave caused extreme challenges. Properties along the seawall in Galveston were severely damaged by powerful winds and heavy rain brought on by Hurricane Beryl on July 8, 2024.

Not only did Hurricane Beryl happen following the creation of The Blackout Effect, by authors Parker Kelly and Cal Orey, a Gulf Coast saga based in a make believe seaside town "Turtle Beach" near Galveston, but so did some of my other uncanny annual hurricane forecasts. 

I forecasted a post on my blog, August 1, 2024, the following: “hurricanes will happen and the likely Gulf States and perhaps the Carolinas. This year Hawaii may get the newsworthy Category 5. And the entire Atlantic seaboard folks may be boarding up and hunkering down unless there is time to evacuate. At least two historical hurricanes will shock the world and leave unbelievable destruction. Tornado outbreaks will be part of nature’s wrath.”

            Then, on August 3, a hurricane warning threatened the Atlantic coast also known as the East Coast or Eastern Seaboard which consists of 14 US states with coastlines on the North Atlantic Ocean, including South Carolina, North Carolinas, Florida, and Geogia. On August 4, Georgia and the Carolinas were hit by Hurricane Debby. And on August 5, Savannah was challenged by a catastrophic flood threat.

Navigating Ahead

Hurricane season in the United States runs from June 1 to November 30, and it seems longer than shorter in contrast to the past, doesn’t it? And it gets more severe and more active in late summer and early fall. The National Oceanic Atmospheric (NOAA) is still predicting an active Atlantic Seaboard hurricane season.

Remember, Katrina slammed the southeastern United States almost two decades ago and Ian devastated southwest Florida two years ago. Katrina hit in late August, and Ian in late September. Debby in this past August was downgraded to a tropical storm from a Category 1 but not before it brought rain, winds, and flooding to the eastern seaboard. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its outlook for the rest of 2024. In May, it forecasted four to seven storms of Category 3 or higher and that hasn’t changed. Meanwhile, Ernesto is scheduled to be the next named storm.

So, as climate change may be playing a role in extreme weather, be it hurricanes in the South and East Coast to catastrophic West Coast wildfires, people and pets continued to be challenged by nature’s fury. Staying Southern Strong is key to weathering the storm until late fall arrives. For more information: https://www.noaa.gov/education/explainers/hurricane-safety-explained .

BOX 1

Hurricane Timeline: 20^th-21^st Century Southern-Eastern Squalls

These Category 5 hurricanes had a great impact on the Gulf States and Atlantic Seaboard.

* Camille (1969): Known for its winds; left parts of Mississippi devasted.

*Andrew (1992): A benchmark storm that reshaped building codes in Florida.

* Hugo: (1989): Caused extensive damage across South Carolina.

* Katrina: (2005): One of the deadliest hurricanes in U.S. history; devastated New Orleans.

* Irma: (2017):  A powerful storm that impacted Florida significantly.

BOX 2

Hurricane Wind Scale

This scale helps communities to understand the risks linked with approaching storms.

Category 1 Winds 74-95 mph; dangerous winds will create some damage.

Category 2 Winds 96-110 mph; extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.

Category 3 Winds 111-129 mph; devastating damage will occur.

Category 4 Winds 130-156 mph; catastrophic damage will occur.

Category 5: Winds greater than 157 mph; catastrophic damage will occur.

Sources: NOAA, National Hurricane Center (NHC), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).